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February
6
6
Slower but Steady Growth in Housing Market in 2019
Home prices will continue to appreciate and home sales will grow in 2019, slowly but steadily. Across the region in 2018, sales volume was up 1% and the average sales price was up 3%. There was considerable variation from market to market, which can be seen on our Regional Activity Chart below. Ruhl&Ruhl Realtors sales volume was up 3.7% to $917,973,157 and our average sales price was up 3%. Click here to read more about Ruhl&RuhlRealtors' Best Year Ever. Lack of affordable inventory slowed sales in 2018. Thankfully, our months of inventory is now higher in most of our markets, which translates to a more balanced housing market instead of a seller's market.
Forecast for 2019
- Buyer Confidence and a Strong Economy Will Drive the Market. Low unemployment, high consumer confidence, and an increasing desire for homeownership will continue to fuel our region's home sales. The national media's doom and gloom reports of falling home sales and prices do not apply here. We do not have the affordability problems of coastal markets and big metro areas. And our regional economy is booming.
- Appreciation and Price Increases Will Continue. In our region, homes appreciated from 2.0% - 4.72% last year, depending on the market and the price range of the homes. For appreciation details by market, and changes in average sales prices by market, see chart on page 2. Less expensive homes continue to appreciate more due to strong demand and lower inventory, while expensive homes are appreciating less due to excess inventory and lower demand.
- Mortgage Rates Trending Upwards. Mortgage rates in mid-January are at their lowest levels since last April. Economists agree that rates will rise, but are divided on just how much the increase will be. On average, they forecast 5.03% by the end of the year, with a few outliers at 5.5%. The higher a buyer's credit score, the lower the mortgage rate they are eligible for. The sooner a buyer buys in 2019, the lower his or her rate, and the more house they can afford for the same monthly payment.
- More Inventory Available for Buyers. Our months of inventory is up in most markets and price ranges. The inventory increase will continue to be skewed toward the mid to high end of the markets, ie homes priced at $250,000 and higher. But we expect buyers to have more homes to choose from this year. There continues to be a supply and demand disconnect. More buyers for homes under $250,000, but more homes available over $300,000.
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As of January 9, 2019, mortgage rates with no points were: |
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| 15 year conventional fixed | 4.0% |
| 30 year conventional fixed | 4.5% |
| FHA/VA 30 year fixed | 4.5% |
| 5/1 ARM (Adjustable Rate Mortgage) | 4.0% |
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